Against the backdrop of many foreign companies suspending their operations or leaving Russia entirely, the notorious queue behind the fence is starting to grow. At the same time, the list of the most in-demand professions in Russia in 2023 is similar to the previous year.
In this review, I will talk about the situation on the domestic labor market, expert forecasts, and provide the top professions of 2023 that will definitely not be left without work in the near future.
The situation on the Russian labor market in spring 2023
In March-April of this year, the number of new vacancies, according to Izvestia, decreased by 17%. And there are all the prerequisites for the "negative growth" to continue. Most Russian businesses are now busy not hiring new employees, but restructuring the company, cutting costs, retaining personnel and preparing for new times.
However, a crisis is a time of opportunity. And according to Alexey Zubets, head of the Institute of Social and Economic Research at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, demand for loans for the development of small and medium-sized businesses increased by 45% in 2022. This can have a positive impact on the Russian economy, because business development means new jobs and an influx of money into the budget.
The current situation on the domestic labor market is difficult, but not catastrophic. In an interview with RBC, Mikhail Zhukov, who heads the employment service at HeadHunter, reported on the results of a survey conducted in May.
- Around 47% have temporarily suspended hiring, but have not "sent out on their own" any staff they have already hired.
- 38% employers continue to hire employees.
- And only 12% intend to lay off staff.
Unemployment in Russia – experts’ forecasts for 2022
According to Mikhail Zhukov, the unemployment rate in our country by the end of the year may be 5.7-7.5%. This is similar to the figures during the 2009 crisis, when unemployment reached 7.8%.
According to Zhukov, there are two options: either the number of unemployed will increase in the short term and then decrease, or the unemployment rate will increase sharply and then fall to 6.5%.
According to Zhukov's forecast, there will be a flow of workers between spheres. Therefore, businesses also need to prepare for retraining employees. And candidates should study the list of the most in-demand professions in Russia in advance in order to get a new profession, and with it a competitive advantage.
The Center for Strategic Research (CSR) agrees with Zhukov’s conclusions, according to which unemployment in Russia could reach 7.1–7.8% in the most negative scenario, and up to 6.4–6.5% in a less negative scenario.
And there is no point in dreaming about wage growth in the near future, but inflation growth is expected – and by 17-20%, according to the head of the Accounts Chamber Alexei Kudrin. That is, the number of the so-called “working poor” will increase – people who have a job, but with a low salary.
Shuttle business – get ready?
It seems that one of the most popular professions in 2022-2023 will be "shuttle trader". Analysts of the Central Bank started talking about this. Deliveries of goods from abroad "on their own traction" is not a new thing for Russians, the shuttle business flourished in the 90s of the 20th century. Most often, our compatriots stocked up on goods in Turkey and China.
And although the number of shuttle traders has significantly decreased since then, they existed until 2020. Then Covid broke out, and the borders of the Celestial Empire were closed to Russians.
«In terms of establishing supplies from alternative foreign suppliers in the context of continuing restrictions, the role of small intermediary foreign trade companies and small shuttle businesses (especially in the consumer segment) will increase,” — write the authors of the review “What Trends Are Talking About.”
Of course, Aliexpress will help us, but this marketplace does not have many necessary consumables for office equipment, spare parts for motorcycles and cars, and other things that have disappeared from sale in Russia.
The most vulnerable and most stable industries – experts’ forecast
Experts do not dare to make long-term forecasts based on the current realities of the labor market. However, it is already clear that the following areas have taken the strongest hit:
- Financial – costs are rising, risks are high.
- Startups are another risky area that will have a hard time attracting investment in 2022.
- Automotive business (both dealers and manufacturing).
- Insurance.
- The most popular white-collar professions in Russia – lawyers, economists, accountants, etc. – have also become less in demand.
- The air travel industry.
However, the spheres related to IT in general and cybersecurity in particular, pharmaceutical companies, the military-industrial complex, aircraft and rocket engineering are doing well. Also, among the most important professions, "blue collars" remain, most professions in this area remain in short supply.
What factors influence the list of in-demand professions in Russia in 2022
The main pressure on the labor market in Russia is exerted by two factors - demographic and qualification. If previously there were many young employees on the staff, now, due to the falling birth rate, employees 35+ are in demand. According to RIA Novosti, over the past 10 years, the number of young people aged 20-24 has decreased from 12 to 7 million people.
As for the skills "hunger", it is felt most acutely in the IT sphere. According to the Ministry of Digital Development, companies currently lack about half a million IT specialists, and in the future this figure may increase to 2 million people, since the Russian economy is aimed at digitalization.
Processes such as the slowdown of internal migration and the drying up of the flow of labor migrants from abroad also play a role.
Top in-demand professions of 2023
Many authoritative publications write about which profession is the most in-demand today. I will cite data from RIA Novosti and the Ministry of Defense. All participants in the list are listed in random order.
- IT specialists. This includes some of the highest-paid professions of 2023 - mobile app developers, machine learning specialists and cybersecurity specialists.
- Logisticians.
- Medical professionals – especially those with specialized specialties, such as cardiologists, anesthesiologists, endocrinologists, surgeons, ophthalmologists, speech therapists. Nurses are also in demand.
- Pharmacists.
- Teachers.
- Design engineers (designers, architects, constructors).
- Sales managers.
- Marketers.
- Professionals in the construction industry – concrete workers, masons, BIM designers, coordinators and project managers.
- Blue collar workers (welders, turners, plumbers, electricians, etc.).
- Catering industry workers.
- Loaders.
- Couriers.
- Waiters.
- Drivers.
- Sellers.
- Specialists in the field of modern agriculture.
Top professions of the future
We are not talking about the times when spaceships will furrow the expanses of the Galaxy - it is premature to look that far. But it is worth thinking about your own retraining, or about what promising profession is best for children to get, right now.
- Robotics engineer. According to RIA Novosti, up to 6 million jobs will be cut over the next 10 years due to the robotization of production. If this forecast is correct, then roboticists who develop robotic systems and service them will be among the most in-demand professions.
- Engineering personnel – in the ranking of professions, process engineers, automated control system engineers and other engineering specialties invariably appear, if not in the first places, then close to them. According to experts, the shortage of such specialists will be felt for a long time. According to HeadHunter experts, 3D printing engineers will also be in great demand in the future.
- The best professions of the future also include IT specialists, primarily programmers and developers of domestic software. It is also worth taking a closer look at such professions as Big Data operator, network lawyer, cybersecurity specialist and "smart environment" designer.
- Specialists in the field of medicine and pharmacology: online therapist, developer of implants and cybernetic prostheses, bioethicist, biopharmacologist, genetic engineer.
- Among the most promising professions are such rare specialties in Russia as GMO agronomist, eco-auditor and operator of automated agricultural machinery.
- In the field of pedagogy, according to RBC Trends, there will be a demand for game masters, developers of educational trajectories and training courses based on AI, specialists in talent search and development, as well as brain fitness trainers (development of brain capabilities).
- Influencers (opinion leaders influencing audiences on various Internet platforms) are a promising direction that future students are looking at. Creating quality content is a long and painstaking work that pays off by attracting advertisers. At the same time, not only celebrities but also any talented person can become an influencer.
- Time managers.
- Neuropsychologists.
- Against the backdrop of the development of the unmanned transport sector (and Russia plans to spend 800 billion rubles on this by 2030), such professions as professional drone pilot, unmanned aircraft engineer and lawyer in the field of unmanned transport are becoming relevant. Moreover, the shortage of these specialists will be felt not only in our country, but also in other countries of the world.
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